I was talking to an expert in project metrics research. I asked him what are the most accurate metrics for measuring project schedule status. Based on his research, the best metric for accurate project schedule status is the best guess of the person closest to the project. Not earned value, not % complete, not critical path completion, not critical chain completion. The most accurate metric is the best guess of the project manager.

That does not mean that these other tools don’t have value. In fact, I find them quite useful in giving me insight into how the project is proceeding. But it shows that many, if not all, of these metrics have flaws. The project manager is able to cover up these flaws by using her judgment of where the project is in reality.

So keep using metrics; keep gathering status; update your project plan; monitor status of risks, issues, costs, and schedule. But be sure to add your judgment of where you think things really are. Your project depends on it.